Monday, August 22, 2011

Global Oil Prices Likely to Drop for Multiple Reasons

Restoration of Libyan oil production likely to put downward pressure on overinflated Brent prices

Italian oilco Eni appears to be the first player likely to profit from a regime change in Tripoli

Ongoing problems in the European economy likely to reduce Euro oil demand even further

Economic problems of Europe and the US likely to impact BRICS adversely

Corrupt oil dictatorships such as Venezuela, Iran, Russia, etc. likely to suffer disproportionately due to overdependence on energy exports. Russia's problems go even deeper, into the core population's inability to sustain its own numbers

The global economy is increasingly an unstable house of cards, threatened by both debt and demography across the advanced world. Bad national leadership -- from the US to Russia to the EU -- is preventing the global economy from instituting crucial political and economic reforms.

The oil markets are particularly untrustworthy at this point in time, subject to powerful undertows and manipulations from powerful players, politicians, and investors. Do not bet your shirt on a belief in the monotonic increase in oil prices over time.

As long as oil prices remain close to $80 a barrel or higher, there will be a strong incentive for more oil production from multiple sources -- including unconventionals such as CTL, GTL, BTL, and KTL (kerogens to liquids). Despite the politically correct protests against the Canada oil sands pipeline to the Gulf of Mexico, Keystone XL, the pipeline is likely to be built. If the Obama regime rejects the pipeline in keeping with its "energy starvation" agenda, the administration that replaces Obama in 2013 will certainly approve the project.



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